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Nature and Society
December 2007 - January 2008 edition

NSF meeting
Panel discussion on climate refugees

Wednesday 17 October 2007

A panel comprising Dr Bryan Furnass (NSF) and Kerrie Tucker (ACT Greens) gave us a thought-provoking discussion of this serious problem facing the world. In our area, rises in sea levels will particularly affect the many small low-lying Pacific Islands, the Pacific Rim countries, and South and South-East Asia with their heavily populated river deltas.

Dr Bryan Furnass

Bryan opened the evening with a remembrance from his childhood of newsreels showing the Nazis gunning down Jewish refugees, and his subsequent life-long awareness of the refugee problem.

He gave the meeting several examples of the climate changes the world is already experiencing and will continue to increasingly experience, especially increases in sea levels, cyclones and unusual and extreme weather patterns.

The year 2005 was the second warmest on record. Already between 1950 and 1999 there has been a four-fold increase in natural disasters. The economic costs of these events had increased eight-fold and the insurance costs, thirteen-fold. The IPCC keep upgrading their projected estimate of rises in water levels. It is now one metre, and probably underestimated.

The predicted weather changes will not only create human refugees, they will also threaten species diversity and food production (the low-lying river deltas and coastal plains are generally the most fertile and also the most heavily populated regions). Changes in temperature and weather patterns will probably also affect the spread of infectious and vector-born diseases. The areas at most risk are the river deltas of the Yellow and Yangtse rivers in China, and similar low-lying areas and river deltas in India, Bangladesh, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Burma. An increase of sea levels of one metre would mean that 17 per cent of the Ganges delta would be flooded. The world needs to acknowledge these possibilities and plan for when they happen.

At the 2002 Pacific Islands Forum climate change was at the top of the agenda. Unfortunately the UN does not officially recognise environmental refugees as a category, although it has been estimated that by 2050 China may have 74 million displaced persons, Bangladesh 26 million and India 20 million.

New Zealand has undertaken to accept 2,000 refugees from Tokelau and Tuvalu; and the USA has agreed to offer sanctuary to the Marshallese (58,000). The inhabitants of Kiribati (78,000) have so far no place to go.

Australia is not yet accepting any responsibility either for the plight of these peoples, or for resettling them when disaster strikes.

Australia will itself experience major weather changes, affecting our ability to accept climate refugees. Some of these have already begun to occur – increased drought in the food-producing southern and eastern parts of the continent and increased rainfall in the north and west. In the last three years the rainfall over the southern parts of the continent has been lower than ever recorded, whereas the northern part of Australia has had increased levels of rain.

Bryan suggested that it may be possible to offer climate refugees a home in the northern parts of Australia, if they undertake to farm the areas receiving the increasing rainfall, to help with the inevitable food shortages as the rest of the country experiences drought and water shortages. He reminded us  that  Asian peoples have good experience in farming sustainably under these conditions.

Comments from the audience raised several potential problems with this solution:

  • Fertility depends on the soil, and Australian soils are thin and would need considerable building-up – this takes many years.
  • The northern part of Australia contains large areas which are protected  Aboriginal reserves – this would have to be respected and land use carefully negotiated.
  • The natural ecological systems need to be preserved.
  • There may well be problems in confining refugees to northern areas, particularly if the farming does not prove viable. The refugees may also have to agree to stay put as a condition of their residence here. Bryan suggested that the Defence forces might have to be involved.

It was also pointed out that by the time areas go under water the population will have increased, compounding the refugee problem and food shortages.

Kerrie Tucker

Kerrie started her contribution by pointing out that the Greens are particularly concerned that climate change will have the greatest impact on the world’s poor, even though the poor have contributed least to the problem. Climate change refugees are among the world’s most poor. The Greens believe it is essential that Australia recognise its responsibility for creating the problem of climate change and accept that it must also contribute to the solution.

The Stern Report estimated that there could be between 150 and 200 million climate refugees by 2050. The IPCC Report released in April 2007 also stressed the seriousness of the problem and stated that unregulated population movements in the Asia-Pacific region will provide an additional challenge to national security.

The governments of Kiribati and Tuvalu have approached the Australian and New Zealand governments on several occasions to request a plan for the migration of their populations as their homelands become uninhabitable.

New Zealand has created a ‘Pacific Access Category’ in its immigration policy. However this includes certain conditions which would need to be met in order for people to be accepted as suitable refugees. These conditions include age, language and employment.

Under its coalition government Australia, has specifically ruled out accepting climate refugees but has pledged $3 million over 3 years to help the islands adapt to their changed living conditions. It has also proposed the establishment and funding of an Australia Pacific Technical College which would offer courses and training for people in the affected island states, to help them to cope in their own countries. And it has contributed $7.5 million to the UN Least Developed Countries Fund, to limit the impact of climate change on the poorest and most vulnerable countries.

The Greens have a population policy, directed towards achieving a sustainable relationship between people and their environment. They support the 1994 UN Population Report. Kerrie has spent time on both Kiribati and the Pacific Islands and believes Australia has two choices - either a ‘Fortress Australia’ attitude, or a collegiate working together. She believes an ethical response is urgently needed, based on the human rights of all people. Social justice and ecological sustainability need to be the driving principles in our approach to the climate refugee problem. It is important to assist people to remain in their own countries as long as possible, and maintain their cultural cohesion.

Greens Senator Kerry Nettle introduced a bill into Parliament earlier in the year, which advocates amending the Migration Act to include a Climate Change Refugee visa class. This would allow for up to 300 refugees per year from Tuvalu, from Kiribati, and from other parts of the Pacific, as appropriate (ie a total of up to 900). The Bill also recommends that Australia work with the UN and other international forums for the establishment of an international definition and framework which addresses climate change and environmental refugees.

Open discussion

The following points were made:

  • It would be helpful if a map of Australia were produced showing the areas that would be affected by rises of 1, 5, or 10 m in sea level. We need to get people talking co-operatively before disaster strikes, and to plan for the changes in sea level.
  • Irrigation, sewerage systems and drinking water supply would be affected by rising sea levels. Also food production and security: the world has only 57 days supply of grain in storage.
  • The recovery of New Orleans has been much slower than anticipated and people have not been very helpful to each other. We need to realise this may also happen in Australia, unless we plan our response beforehand.
  • Health, including mental, problems will greatly increase - it won’t only be food, water and sea level problems. This has happened in India and New Orleans following their weather disasters. These water shortage and health problems will strike many years before sea level rises per se become an issue.
  • Records indicate that Javanese and Japanese seafarers have been coming to the north of Australia for over a thousand years, and have attempted to settle, but were not able to establish agriculture and left. The CSIRO has shown how agriculture could be established, and this knowledge needs to be made available to prospective settlers in the north of Australia.
  • Climate change is a moral issue of the first order.
  • Australia will have to look carefully at the industries and crops it supports. Cotton growing is possibly not a reasonable choice, given its water needs. Rice and bananas in suitable areas are probably much more appropriate choices, helping us feed our neighbours and leading to change in our own diets.
  • Democracy may not be the best way to cope with the decision-making Australia now faces. NSF member David Shearman (also with Doctors for the Environment), has recently addressed this issue in his book The Climate Change Challenge and the Failure of Democracy.
  • If we do not incorporate social justice and ecological integrity into our culture in time, the likelihood of fair and equitable contributions by Australia to the coming refugee problem will diminish rapidly. In 20-30 years our economy and lifestyle will be hugely different but there are no long-term plans for this future.

Kerrie Tucker added a final comment, saying we still need to be positive; and Stephen Boyden added that he sometimes felt negative, but would like to think a positive approach was possible – hence the existence of the Nature and Society Forum and its vision of Healthy People on a Healthy Planet.

Kerrie Tucker has provided the following references for her talk:

Friends of the Earth A Citizen’s Guide to Climate Refugees 2007

The New Zealand government’s immigration website

Senator Vanstone, then Minister for Immigration, reported on the ABC website No such thing as climate change refugees on
30 October 2006

PM rejects Tuvalu on sea level, The Age, 20 February 2007

Alexander Downer Australia Funds Climate Change Adaptation in Most Vulnerable Countries
5 June 2007.

Gerda Mark ©

December 2007 - January 2008 edition accessible here

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Page updated 15 December 2007. To contact the editor of Nature and Society, please e-mail our office.