Home Object Activities Contact Who's who How to join NSF How to support NSF What's on Nature and Society Editorial This time last year it was obvious that quite suddenly large sections of the public were taking notice of the climate change debate and realising that there was a real problem. This year has been notable for much more reporting of environmental problems and more public concern. Local governments, activist groups and individuals are getting involved in a big way. A growing number of scientists have also been prepared to speak frankly about the problems we face. Where the IPCC reports have been hampered by the need for governmental as well as scientific consensus, some individual scientists are speaking out. They are aware that many of the deleterious signs of environmental problems are escalating, and fearful that we will reach an irretrievable state far sooner than was expected. They, more than anyone else, realise that feedback effects, once seriously entrenched, can not be controlled. They know that business as usual is certain doom, and they are warning us as strongly as they can. (See Under a Green Sky as an example.) Predictably the Australian and US Governments realised that they would have to react and take action. Unfortunately, as they had, for the most part, little understanding of the situation their proposed solutions were too little, too late, plain ineffective or even counterproductive. Worse, they turned away from the most immediate, most effective things they could have done, such as mandate energy and water efficiencies, regulate for strict measures on new buildings and greatly increase the uptake of renewable energies. Their preferred alternatives, such as carbon offsetting and trading, biofuels, nuclear energy and geosequestration, are unproven and may not result in any reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. With the change in government in Australia there is hope that action will become more effective. As well as ratifying the Kyoto agreement, we now have a minister for climate change. We hope that the rest of cabinet will not just leave it all to her; the whole cabinet, indeed the whole government must understand that this issue concerns them all. From now on there must be no more pushing for increased growth in either population or consumption. Everyone must understand that Australia is arid, its soils infertile and it cannot continue to provide food for hundreds of millions of people. It may have trouble feeding its own current population. Even some sections of the oil and mineral industries have admitted that supplies of both are declining. It is quite surreal to read the papers and see on one page news about oil extraction probably having topped out, that we are already experiencing Peak Oil, and on another page read the announcement of a new budget airline, increasing freight flights, and expansion of airports. The Red Queen in Through the Looking Glass told Alice that she should not be bounded by reality, that she should practise believing in impossible things. It seems that humans do not need to practise such a skill, it is an innate one of which we are masters. The problem is to train ourselves not to believe the impossible. As a national curriculum is now on the agenda, it should include the essential numeracy skill of understanding exponential growth. What happens when a number is doubled repeatedly seems to be beyond the ken of politicians and economists. One commentator soon after the election suggested that, as clouds gather on the economic horizon, the former Government now Opposition members of Parliament might soon realise that it is actually a good time to be in opposition. Clouds are not only gathering on the economic horizon, but in many other places. The challenges of reducing human over consumption, and the accompanying destruction of the environment are so great that governments are going to be faced by really difficult choices, although Peak Oil might do it for them. Financial markets have been unstable recently, but that is nothing to what will happen when they wake up to the reality of declining oil supplies. They will see a future with troubled transport, little plastic, few pharmaceuticals, diminishing supplies of fertiliser, reduced food production and distribution, cut backs in overseas trade. Fears of inflation will be superseded by the reality of major depression. Yes, happy New Year to our new Government. We wish you well as you, and we, adjust to the new realities which will overtake us in the coming years. We also need to remember that there will be pluses as well as minuses in the adjustments, as we learn to value what we have, rather than always demanding more. Jenny Wanless December 2007 - January 2008 edition accessible here Back to top ________________________________________________________________
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